MENA upstream: what to look for in 2016 Report

Insight 05 January 2016

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Report summary

We highlight the key events to watch in the Middle East and North Africa in 2016, including: sanctions being lifted on Iran, Saudi Arabia maintaining its oil production, as well as progress on a number of major projects across the region. As ever geopolitics will play a key role in the region, particularly given the low oil price environment. Exploration will remain largely suppressed, except in the East Mediterranean which is seeing renewed interest following last year's Zohr discovery.

Top events to watch
- Sanctions to be lifted on Iran, Saudi to maintain production output
Progress at major projects
- Wasit Gas Project to come online
- ADCO negotiations to continue
- Al Shaheen to be awarded by year-end
- Eni to sanction the Zohr project
- Progress at Leviathan, but no FID in 2016
- Gas exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to be sanctioned
Geopolitics
- Iraq/KRG relationship status quo, IS occupation to continue
- Yemen conflict will continue to affect production
- Impasse on the Partitioned Neutral Zone
Corporate activity
- Disposals likely as Shell/BG deal concludes
- Distressed companies to start selling out of Kurdistan/Egypt
Fiscal
- Oman to increase corporate tax on LNG producers
Exploration
- Exploration will remain suppressed, with the exception of the East Mediterranean
Wood Mackenzie builds presence in the Middle East