National Oil Companies: strategies for the energy transition in 2023

Our analysis focuses on 19 key NOCs with 60 million boe/d in combined output. Across the globe, actions are being taken by NOC governments to build out supportive regulatory and fiscal frameworks. This includes government-led funding, carbon regulation, tax incentives, emissions trading schemes, and biofuel mandates. State-owned companies today also have the financial strength to fast-track their low-carbon goals. Strategies have progressed meaningfully in the past couple of years but lag leading IOCs. De-risking the legacy business through emissions reduction and decarbonisation is a top priority. In tandem, NOCs are exploring long-dated options. Transition-ready themes (e.g., renewables, CCUS, hydrogen) are still at an early stage of implementation. But the breadth of initiatives and acceleration in capital deployment point to a meaningful build-out in the medium term.