Non-OPEC decline rates set to increase Report

Insight 22 October 2015

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Report summary

The fall in crude prices and slashing of upstream investment plans has put renewed focus on non-OPEC decline rates. High oil prices and a wave of upstream capital investment between 2011 and 2014 saw decline rates nearly halve in 2013 and 2014. It will take time for the momentum in supply that has been built-up to slow, but under our current projections, decline rates will revert towards normal levels in 2017. Most, but not all regions, follow this trend.

Executive summary
- Non-OPEC decline rates fall to 3% in 2013 and 2014
- Impact of low oil prices limited in 2015, but decline rates steepen by 2017
- Recent improvements give way to higher declines across most regions
- Market volatility creates uncertainty
- Appendix - Methodology

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

Non-OPEC capex on producing fields (excluding North America tight oil) and Brent oil price
Annual average non-OPEC decline rate (excluding North America tight oil)
Regional average non-OPEC oil decline rates