Insight

Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional

Get this report

$1,350

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

08 June 2017

Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional

Report summary

Stable oil prices since the OPEC agreement to cut production in late 2016 have led to a return in near-term growth, driven primarily by onshore US supply. The pace of growth onshore US and from other non-OPEC sources including Brazil, Russia and Canada, poses a major challenge for OPEC in the short-term. We have made strong upward revisions to our supply outlook since H2 2016, weighted towards non-OPEC producers. OPEC crude oil capacity in the longer term has been revised down, mainly due to a downgrade in Venezuela, where the pace and potential supply of heavy oil has been lowered. This is offset by growth in Iran and Iraq and recovery in Libya in the near-term.

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC: US tight oil's second growth phase will dominate supply growth to 2025
    • OPEC: near to medium term strategy and political risk
    • US tight oil – how big and at what cost?
    • Tight oil vs deepwater: costs for conventional projects have further to fall
      • Why are deepwater costs taking so long to reset?
      • Breakevens for deepwater projects: lower, but a shrunken pool
    • OPEC production cuts, strategy and political risk
      • OPEC's commitment to production restraint
      • Appendix
        • Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
        • OPEC
        • Non-OPEC

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • US tight oil production growth
  • Pre-FID liquids cost curve
  • Associated split of production
  • Global supply outages: base case assumes relatively benign view

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global supply outlook H1 2017 Slide pack.pdf

    PDF 1.94 MB

  • Document

    Global supply outlook H1 2017 data.xls

    XLS 204.00 KB

  • Document

    Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional

    PDF 384.01 KB

  • Document

    Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2017: US tight oil vs conventional

    ZIP 2.11 MB

Other reports you may be interested in

Browse reports by Industry Sector