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Oil supply long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil and OPEC

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Report summary

Global supply is projected to grow robustly in the short- to medium-term, reaching a broad plateau of around 112 million b/d from 2030. Improving prices into the 2020s and an uptick in new project sanctions supports growth. Whilst we have made some upward revisions to the supply forecast, much of these over the next 5-7 years, key aspects of the H1 2017 outlook remain. Total non-OPEC production is still forecast to peak in 2025; the US, and in particular the onshore Lower 48, provides the vast majority of growth; the Permian is the key driver; Middle East OPEC producers are the key contributors to OPEC production capacity growth post-2025, with Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia showing the strongest gains; and global geopolitical risk continues to pose significant risk to our supply outlook.

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Table of contents

  • US Lower 48 crude: stronger growth to 2021, but lower peak production
  • Permian remains the key growth play for US Lower 48; but increasing focus on downside risk
  • OPEC: long-term production growth dominated by Iran and Iraq; near-term recovery in Libya
  • Political risk and OPEC policy remain critical to price outlook to 2035

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