Insight
Pre-FID oil projects: global breakeven analysis and cost curves
Report summary
The marginal cost of new supply is one of the critical factors which will determine the future price of oil. We have updated our comprehensive breakeven analysis of future oil developments. These projects are critical for future oil supply and comprise conventional pre-FID projects and future drilling in US onshore Lower 48. Since our January 2016 report, we have seen significant changes to the cost curve. Key findings include: 70% of production from future developments is now commercial at $60/bbl in 2025 Deep/ultra-deepwater projects are hit hardest although cost deflation is evident Since 2009 the advent of tight oil has had the biggest impact on the pre-FID cost curve If prices remain around $50/bbl then most major projects are at risk of deferral or cancellation
Table of contents
-
Breakeven analysis: an update
- 70% of production from future developments is now commercial at US$60/bbl in 2025
- Deep/ultra-deepwater projects are hit hardest, although cost deflation is evident
- Since 2009 the advent of tight oil has had the biggest impact on the cost curve
- If prices remain around $50/bbl then most major conventional projects are at risk of deferral or cancellation
Tables and charts
This report includes 1 images and tables including:
- Cost curve: cumulative production by breakeven in 2025 – by resource theme
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens H2 2023
Key Middle Eastern OPEC countries dominate low-cost supply both now and in the future
$6,000
Insight
Long-term Brent price maintained at US$65/bbl – oil and gas price assumptions versus forecasts
Defining our price assumptions and methodology, their use in our tools and services, and why these are independent of our price forecasts.
$1,350
Insight
Gold in Brief
Our Gold in brief is a rolling coverage of key events as they happen in the global Gold market.
$1,050
