Pre-FID oil projects: global breakeven analysis and cost curves Report

Insight 01 July 2016

Get this report*

$1,350

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The marginal cost of new supply is one of the critical factors which will determine the future price of oil. We have updated our comprehensive breakeven analysis of future oil developments. These projects are critical for future oil supply and comprise conventional pre-FID projects and future drilling in US onshore Lower 48. Since our January 2016 report, we have seen significant changes to the cost curve. Key findings include: 70% of production from future developments is now commercial at $60/bbl in 2025 Deep/ultra-deepwater projects are hit hardest although cost deflation is evident Since 2009 the advent of tight oil has had the biggest impact on the pre-FID cost curve If prices remain around $50/bbl then most major projects are at risk of deferral or cancellation

Breakeven analysis: an update
- 70% of production from future developments is now commercial at US$60/bbl in 2025
- Deep/ultra-deepwater projects are hit hardest, although cost deflation is evident
- Since 2009 the advent of tight oil has had the biggest impact on the cost curve
- If prices remain around $50/bbl then most major conventional projects are at risk of deferral or cancellation