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Repsol corporate report

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18 September 2018

Repsol corporate report

Report summary

Repsol occupies a unique niche in the E&P sector. It is the only Independent player to retain a downstream position and no other peer matches it for upstream diversity. It has now embarked on a drive into clean energy to further differentiate itself. Growth is being targeted across the entire business and there is plenty of capital to invest. Shareholders will also be rewarded with improved returns. Yet Repsol has work to do to strengthen in the upstream and will need to avoid value erosion from low carbon investment that could be on a par with the other Euro Majors.

Table of contents

  • Other Repsol Research
  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Strategic update 2018-2020
      • Market out-performance during the down cycle
    • Strategic priorities
      • 1. Carving out a niche in the upstream sector
        • 1.1 Better clarity over the direction of a differentiated upstream portfolio
        • Portfolio strategic fit
        • 1.2 Portfolio high-grading likely to accelerate
        • 1.3 Opportunistic acquisitions are on the agenda
      • 2. Deliver upstream growth plans and returns
        • 2.1 Bringing short-cycle developments online by 2020
        • 2.2. Successful execution of longer-dated oil developments
        • 2.3 Unlocking discovered resource upside
      • 3. Delivering on the financial framework
        • 3.1 Cash flow breakevens and balance sheet strength
        • 3.2 Downside risks to the cash flow outlook
        • 3.3 Surplus free cash flow at higher prices
      • 4. Maintaining a core exploration focus
      • 5. Growing the downstream business
        • 5.1 Growth strategy and valuation
        • 5.2 Refining
        • 5.3 Petrochemicals
        • 5.4 Retail and LPG
      • 6. Developing a low-carbon business
        • 6.1 Clear targets for building a low-carbon business
        • 6.2 The benefits of focusing on the Spanish market
        • 6.3 Reducing portfolio carbon intensity
  • Valuation
  • Investment
  • Production
  • Reserves
    • Top assets by value
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Links to upstream asset analyses for top assets (access subject to entitlement)
    • Economic assumptions

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

  • SWOT analysis
  • Base case upstream NPV10
  • Current upstream NPV10 vs. future upstream NPV10
  • Enterprise value vs. Wood Mackenzie NPV10
  • Upstream portfolio sensitivities vs. Upstream EV
  • Forecast development expenditure (nominal)
  • Forecast operating expenditure (nominal)
  • Reported and unit costs
  • New project returns
  • Reported and WM forecast production
  • Liquid vs. Gas
  • Liquid production
  • Gas production
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie commercial
  • Total reserves: Wood Mackenzie by region
  • Total reserves: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Reserve life: reported vs. Wood Mackenzie
  • Global upstream portfolio: Image 1
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base price assumptions (nominal terms)
  • Base, high and low Brent (nominal terms)
  • Economic assumptions: Table 2
  • Economic assumptions: Table 3
  • Economic assumptions: Table 4
  • Economic assumptions: Table 5
  • Benchmark: premium/discount to WM NPV10
  • Benchmark: share price performance
  • Benchmark: production growth CAGR
  • Repsol: production outlook 2017-2030
  • Repsol net acreage summary
  • Benchmark: WM reserve replacement (2013-2017)
  • Strategy: Image 3
  • Benchmark: % of NPV10 by region
  • Benchmark: % of NPV10 by resource theme
  • Wood Mackenzie assessment of future disposal candidates
  • Benchmark: post capex upstream cash margins
  • Repsol: pre-capex cash margin (2018-2022)
  • Production from short-cycle growth projects
  • Post-2020 production growth drivers
  • Repsol year-end net debt outlook
  • Repsol projected cash flow breakeven
  • Repsol's refining portfolio
  • Repsol: reported earnings by segment
  • Repsol: NCM benchmark vs. regional performance

What's included

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    PDF 2.93 MB

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