Uncertainties, risks, rewards and regional conflicts in the Middle East

OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the unwinding of 2.2 million b/d in voluntary cuts marked a clear shift in strategy. Supply discipline has given way to a renewed focus on market share, despite mounting macroeconomic uncertainty and a tightening supply–demand balance. Brent has since rebounded driven in part by heightened geopolitical risk following the Israel–Iran conflict. With both escalation and de-escalation in the conflict equally plausible, the oil market faces extreme price scenarios in the near term—from sub-US$50/bbl lows to spikes above US$85/bbl. This price volatility has far-reaching implications for investment strategy and project risk across the region. In this report, we explore how shifting oil price dynamics are reshaping upstream investment risk in the Middle East. We examine which projects and producers are most exposed, assess the resilience of sanctioned and unsanctioned developments, and analyse how NOCs and IOCs are positioned to navigate a widening price band.