Venezuela's oil recovery faces constraints: asset potential notwithstanding (Part 1)

Access has reopened to Venezuela's upstream sector, but investment remains concentrated in incumbent-led projects with existing operatorship and infrastructure. Production has recovered through reactivation of shut-in Orinoco Belt capacity, though most of the resource base—unawarded acreage, PDVSA assets, and offshore gas—remains difficult to access. Recent policy improvements and sanctions relief enhanced fiscal competitiveness, yet challenges have shifted from fiscal constraints to infrastructure degradation, regulatory discretion, and execution complexity. The critical question is no longer whether Venezuela can restore production, but whether it can move beyond incremental recovery to achieve sustained expansion.