Will South Sudan return to being a major oil producer?

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20 September 2018

Will South Sudan return to being a major oil producer?

Report summary

In August 2018, South Sudan’s petroleum minister announced that production had resumed from the Greater Nile Oil Project. Production from the area had been shut-in since the outbreak of civil war in December 2013. In June 2018, the South Sudanese government and rebel fighters agreed to a ceasefire leading to a power-sharing agreement, which was signed on 6 August 2018. South Sudan hopes to double its oil output by the end of the year. But is this even remotely likely? The full extent of damage to field infrastructure is unknown, as is the performance of oil reservoirs that have been shut-in for five years. However, the biggest uncertainty is whether the peace deal will last long enough for any production increases to be sustained.

Table of contents

  • Introduction
  • Production targets are optimistic
  • Power-sharing accord is unlikely to last
  • Wood Mackenzie's production forecast
  • What will this mean for investors?
  • Effect on the crude market
  • Outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Map of South Sudan oil projects on the border
  • South Sudan block participation
  • Wood Mackenzie's South Sudan base-case forecast
  • Free cash flow from South Sudan under different scenarios (2018-2021)*

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Will South Sudan return to being a major oil producer?

    PDF 1.16 MB