Product List Carousel Block
Product List Carousel Block
Products & services
Refinery Supply Model
Understand the dynamics of crude and product markets at a global, regional and asset level
Build your own view of crude and product markets to make smarter investment decisions
An accelerating energy transition creates significant uncertainty around future refined product demand and clouds the picture for future regional product balances, refining margins, crude differentials, crude and product trade, and ultimately refining asset competitiveness.
Our Refinery Supply Model provides scenario capability and unrivalled modelled detail in optimizing the global downstream environment including refinery supply, utilization, trade, pricing and margins dynamics.
Features and workflows
Mitigate uncertainty and plan future downstream investments and strategy with scenario modelling capability.
Key features of Wood Mackenzie's Refinery Supply Model:
- Simulate midstream investments, capacity additions or closures.
- Assess regional impacts & benchmark individual site competitiveness under a range of market scenarios.
- Examine evolving trade patterns and regional product balances under various demand scenarios.
- Understand the full impact of supply, demand and investments changes across the integrated refinery-petrochemical value chain.
- Assess the impact of carbon legislation on trade flows and site competitiveness.
- Model the behaviour of the global refinery system and projects, crude trade, refinery output and trade of oil products.
Wood Mackenzie's Refinery Supply Model includes some of the following data:
- Cloud based, linear optimisation model using a cost minimisation approach.
- Coverage of 500 refineries and 300 North American pipeline and terminal connections.
- Over 600 refineries, 200 integrated sites and over 1000 chemical assets sites modelled to exact unit capacities.
- Base case data with fully editable inputs including granular regional supply by quality and detailed regional product demand, refinery capacity details, trade routes and costs.
- A granular view of midstream asset level utilisation and positioning.
- Coverage of refined products, aromatics, olefins and polyolefins.
- All refineries >50 kb/d modelled to exact unit capacities to generate realistic crude slate and product yield optimisation.
Wood Mackenzie's Refinery Supply Model enables a number of key workflows including:
Forecasting
- Dynamically observe how the global refining system re-optimises under any conditions.
- Understand the degree of refining yield shifts and evolving crude and product trade patterns.
- Gain an integrated view of energy markets with easy scenario comparisons.
- Integrate the supply model with other Wood Mackenzie models in our Energy Analytics environment.
Investment strategy
- Generate bespoke crude supply, product demand, or asset investment scenarios to quantify impacts
of changes at a market or asset level. - Identify where investment opportunities will emerge or when divestment might be optimal by understanding how utilisation and margins will evolve over time.
Why choose WoodMac’s Refinery Supply Model?
Benefit from Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition scenarios built on unique data and expertise to gain clarity of the crude and product markets and guide your investment decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Here you’ll find answers to the most common questions you may have on Wood Mackenzie’s Refinery Supply Model. If you have any other questions, get in touch.
Our Refinery Supply Model will support you in delivering business values by:
- Mitigating risk in commercial decisions.
- Understanding evolving market dynamics.
- Informing your portfolio decisions.
- Gaining an integrated view of energy markets.
Our Refinery Supply Model provides a base case data with fully editable inputs, including:
- Regional refined product and petrochemical demand.
- Crude supply by region & quality.
- Refinery and petrochemical site capacity by individual process unit.
- Build new capacity and shut capacity down.
- Trade routes and costs.
- Carbon costs by site.
Contact an expert
Sophisticated modelling capabilities and granular data are required to account for the thousands of variables driving the global downstream environment. Get in touch with one of our experts today to learn how our modelling capability can help you make smarter investment decisions.
