Will Russia’s gas strategy mimic that of Saudi Arabia’s oil strategy, will it seek to retain market share in Europe, pushing European gas prices to levels that force the shut-in of US LNG exports?
In our latest article, Russia market share strategy: US LNG at risk of shut-in, we saw as much as half of US LNG at risk of being shut-in at times over the next five years. Using our bespoke Global Gas Model to run sensitivity analysis, we focused on three key determinants: coal, oil and Russia's gas export strategy. But what is the market outlook if prices start to rise?
Russia’s share of the European market could decline to only 25% if the price of oil and Russian contract gas rise.
In a high oil price environment, Russia may withhold volumes from the market above the ToP level of existing contracts to achieve higher spot prices and support existing contract pricing. Alternatively, should oil prices remain low Russia oil-indexed contract gas will remain competitive and buyers will maximise their offtake of Russian gas to the ACQ level.
Get the full analysis including eight sensitivities and outcomes in the full report here.
Watch Stephen review a range of sensitivities based on a varied oil and coal price
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