Global economic outlook Q3 2024: shaking off shocks

The global economy is shaking off the shocks that have rocked macroeconomic conditions and growth over the past few years. But a return to stability is far from complete or certain. Continuing to lean on services and consumer spending to drive growth, the global economy will arrest the slowdown this year. In many developed economies, interest rate cuts have been slow to materialise despite the retreat in inflation. Therefore, the pivot to investment and manufacturing has yet to pick up momentum. We expect the US economy to enter a cyclical slowdown, but recession risks are overblown. China is shifting its growth strategy to stabilise the structural slowdown. Following the election, India can expect more of the same in terms of focus on infrastructure investment. The new Population Prospects 2024 from the United Nations (UN) is likely to dampen global economic growth potential. Risks are numerous, skewed to the downside and could disrupt the global economy at any time.