This month’s Horizons explores the complex, ironic twist in Europe’s Energy Transition: how the region’s oil refiners - under increasing decarbonisation pressure - could unlock the long-stalled green hydrogen market.
Despite growing momentum behind clean energy, green hydrogen project development is faltering. The high cost of production and lack of committed offtakers are stalling progress, even as governments push forward with decarbonisation goals. Ironically, Europe’s oil refining sector, driven by EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) compliance and Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) targets, could catalyse the scale-up of green hydrogen by creating near-term demand of over half a million tons annually by 2030 - an opportunity worth billions.
But the path to scale is far from simple. Green hydrogen remains significantly more expensive than traditional methods and the sector faces mounting technology risks, regulatory fragmentation across EU member states and fierce cost competition from Chinese electrolyser manufacturers. Longer term, the stakes are even higher: maritime and aviation sectors could require tens of millions of tons of green hydrogen by 2050, with mandates like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) already taking shape.
This month’s Horizons report, Isn’t it ironic? How Europe’s oil refiners could offer a route to scale-up green hydrogen, outlines why now may be a breakthrough moment for green hydrogen and why early movers stand to benefit most. The convergence of rising carbon costs, supportive policy and regulatory mandates could finally shift the market from promise to progress.
Key themes include:
- Refiners under pressure. The EU ETS and RED III are driving a fundamental shift in refinery operations, opening the door for near-term green hydrogen demand.
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Green hydrogen at a tipping point. While costs remain high, project momentum is possible if regulatory and commercial frameworks evolve fast enough.
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Long-term aviation fuel potential. With mandates requiring 8 million tons of green hydrogen by 2050, the groundwork laid today could define the future market.
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Risks and roadblocks. From technology uncertainty to global supply chain dynamics, the sector faces real hurdles—but also real rewards.
Read the full report now to get the complete picture. Then, join us for Horizons Live, where our expert panel will debate some of the key themes and answer your questions in a live Q&A.
Our panel:
- Murray Douglas, Vice President, Hydrogen & Derivatives Research
- Ozzy Jegunma, Senior Research Analyst, Oils & Chemicals
- Gavin Thompson,Vice Chairman, Energy – Europe, Middle East & Africa
- Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets
- Monica Trilho, Research Analyst – Hydrogen & Derivatives
Register now via the form at the top of the page.
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