Nodal Price Forecast: ERCOT
Maximize trading profits with congestion-informed nodal price predictions across 900+ ERCOT nodes
Precision forecasting. Profitable trading.
In today’s volatile power markets, knowing the price isn’t enough --- you need to know why it’s moving.
Introducing context-driven price predictions that reveal exactly why prices move before they happen. A revolutionary approach in the market, Nodal Price Forecast delivers granular, current-day and next-day LMP predictions for over 900+ ERCOT nodes, updated every hour.
Whether you’re trading congestion, managing assets, or optimizing bids, this is the edge you’ve been waiting for.
The most advanced nodal price forecast in ERCOT
900+
nodes
1 hour
intervals of up-to-date pricing
2 years
of historical data for comparison
50 billion
datapoints processed every hour
Features and workflows
Stop trading blind and see exactly what drives ERCOT prices before they move.
Key features and benefits of Wood Mackenzie's Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT:
- 900+ nodes: Identify localized arbitrage opportunities across entire ERCOT network
- Confidence ratings (1-4 scale): Prioritize high-certainty predictions to reduce trading risk
- Forecast transparency: Understand price drivers (weather, outages) for strategic positioning
- Prediction range: Identify potential volatility viewing 10 LMPs from similar days
- Key contextual insights: Congestion forecast and similar days for more informed decisions
- Hourly resolution: Execute precise intraday trading strategies with granular timing
- Seamless API integration: Automate trading workflows with real-time data feeds
- Historical comparison (2 years): Validate strategies against proven market patterns and identified similar days
- Shift factors and LODFs from CIQ: Make sense of power flow sensitivities with forward-looking calculated shift factors and LODFs
- MCC/MEC breakdown: Separate congestion costs from energy costs for targeted optimization
- Toolkit: An easy-to-use toolkit to setup a valuable dashboard
Wood Mackenzie's Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT represents a fundamental departure from industry-standard statistical models:
- Comprehensive data integration: The system incorporates all available Wood Mackenzie proprietary data including sensor network feeds, bid data, market fundamentals, and demand. It also includes ISO operational data such as transmission network and outages, actual generation, market prices for power and gas, and shift factors.
- Fundamentals-based approach: Unlike competitors' statistical models, the system employs power dispatch (SCED) modelling and congestion forecasting to simulate actual grid operations.
- Contextual insights: The system provides not just price predictions but explanations of driving factors—whether congestion, weather, outages, or generation changes—addressing needs for context.
- Historical similarity matching: Advanced AI algorithms identify historical periods most “similar to” forecast conditions, enabling traders to validate predictions against past market behaviour.
- Granular coverage: Hourly predictions for over 900 ERCOT resource nodes with current-day and next-day forecasting capabilities.
Wood Mackenzie's Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT enables several key workflows including:
Congestion Arbitrage Trading
• Identify transmission constraints creating price differentials between nodes.
• Capitalize on predictable congestion patterns during peak demand periods.
• Optimize asset dispatch to capitalize on high-cost congestion windows.
Day-Ahead Market Positioning
• Position portfolios based on next-day nodal price forecasts with confidence ratings.
• Hedge against volatile price movements in specific network locations.
• Maximize revenue from generation assets through strategic bidding.
Real-Time Risk Management
• Monitor intraday price volatility across multiple nodes simultaneously.
• Adjust trading positions based on the largest and most accurate real-time generation sensor network, evolving weather and outage conditions and the market leading expert forecasts.
• Minimize exposure to unexpected price spikes through early warning insights.
Why choose WoodMac’s Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT?
What sets us apart is the power behind the prediction. Unlike competitors who use pure statistical forecasting, our solution is fundamentally rooted in these foundations of strength:
- Proprietary sensor network: 1,000+ power plants and 2,000+ transmission lines with 98.8% uptime reliability
- Advanced modelling: Power dispatch (SCED) simulation combined with congestion forecasting
- Unmatched data integration: Real-time generation, demand center monitoring, and transmission flow data unavailable elsewhere
- Expert human intelligence: 30+ dedicated analysts providing 24/7 market insights across seven US ISOs
Empowering energy market participants
Our Nodal Price Forecast solution delivers precise, real-time pricing intelligence tailored to your specific market position. Whether you're managing utility operations, optimizing asset performance, or executing trading strategies, our platform provides the insights you need to make informed decisions and maximize value.
Utilities
Optimize costs and minimize risk across your service territory
Utility
Your goals
- Cost optimization: Understand price expectations at your specific load zone and minimize costs and price risk
- Basis risk management: Understand expected congestion between the hub and load zone to minimize basis risk
- Informed decision making: Leverage historical similarity analysis for more strategic planning
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Our system continuously updates with Power RT data, automatically adjusting forecasts when unit trips or other real-time events occur
- Risk management: Access to the 10 nearest LMPs from similar days provides a comprehensive range of potential outcomes for robust risk assessment
- Transmission planning: Integration of transmission outages and proprietary forecasted shift factors helps you anticipate and prepare for congestion impacts
Asset owners & operators
Maximize profitability and operational efficiency
Asset owners & operators
Your goals
- Profit maximization: Understand price expectations and maximize profit for your specific node
- Market intelligence: Understand the context behind price formation at your node, including transmission outages, nearby generation, and constraints
- Strategic planning: Leverage historical day similarity analysis for more informed operational decisions
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Stay ahead of market changes with automatic forecast adjustments based on real-time Power RT data and system events
- Risk management: Comprehensive risk assessment through access to 10 nearest LMPs from similar historical days
- Transmission planning: Advanced integration of transmission outages and proprietary shift factor forecasts to anticipate congestion impacts on your assets
Speculative trader
Capitalize on market opportunities with precision timing
Speculative trader
Your goals
- Spread optimization: Maximize price spreads between two nodes for profitable arbitrage opportunities
- Risk assessment: Understand the drivers behind price separation and assess the risk of opportunities not materializing
- First-mover advantage: Be the first to identify and capitalize on emerging market opportunities
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Lightning-fast updates with Power RT data ensure you're always working with the most current information when unit trips or system events create trading opportunities
- Risk management: Sophisticated risk analysis through 10 nearest LMP comparisons from similar days gives you confidence in your trading decisions
- Transmission planning: Proprietary forecasted shift factors and transmission outage integration help you anticipate and profit from congestion-driven price differentials
Utility
Your goals
- Cost optimization: Understand price expectations at your specific load zone and minimize costs and price risk
- Basis risk management: Understand expected congestion between the hub and load zone to minimize basis risk
- Informed decision making: Leverage historical similarity analysis for more strategic planning
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Our system continuously updates with Power RT data, automatically adjusting forecasts when unit trips or other real-time events occur
- Risk management: Access to the 10 nearest LMPs from similar days provides a comprehensive range of potential outcomes for robust risk assessment
- Transmission planning: Integration of transmission outages and proprietary forecasted shift factors helps you anticipate and prepare for congestion impacts
Asset owners & operators
Your goals
- Profit maximization: Understand price expectations and maximize profit for your specific node
- Market intelligence: Understand the context behind price formation at your node, including transmission outages, nearby generation, and constraints
- Strategic planning: Leverage historical day similarity analysis for more informed operational decisions
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Stay ahead of market changes with automatic forecast adjustments based on real-time Power RT data and system events
- Risk management: Comprehensive risk assessment through access to 10 nearest LMPs from similar historical days
- Transmission planning: Advanced integration of transmission outages and proprietary shift factor forecasts to anticipate congestion impacts on your assets
Speculative trader
Your goals
- Spread optimization: Maximize price spreads between two nodes for profitable arbitrage opportunities
- Risk assessment: Understand the drivers behind price separation and assess the risk of opportunities not materializing
- First-mover advantage: Be the first to identify and capitalize on emerging market opportunities
How we help you succeed
- Real-time adaptation: Lightning-fast updates with Power RT data ensure you're always working with the most current information when unit trips or system events create trading opportunities
- Risk management: Sophisticated risk analysis through 10 nearest LMP comparisons from similar days gives you confidence in your trading decisions
- Transmission planning: Proprietary forecasted shift factors and transmission outage integration help you anticipate and profit from congestion-driven price differentials
Frequently asked questions
Here you’ll find answers to the most common questions you may have on Wood Mackenzie’s Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT. If you have any other questions, get in touch.
The Nodal Price Forecast API provides access to hourly forecasted Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) for all supply nodes, load zones, and hubs within ERCOT, as well as a large amount of contextual data and insights. These forecasts are essential for market participants to make informed decisions on energy trading, pricing strategies, and risk management.
Our forecasting model combines power market fundamentals, congestion analysis, and statistical analysis. It uses advanced machine learning and AI algorithms that leverage the world's largest sensor network, 2 years of historical data, and expert forecasts from our market analysts to capture both typical and atypical market dynamics.
The model updates on an hourly frequency to provide you with the most current market predictions.
The Nodal Price Forecasts are available exclusively through our API. Access requires a valid API key and subscription to the appropriate service package.
Yes, we have created Python toolkits specifically designed for our customers to create quick visualizations and rapidly prototype solutions. These toolkits allow you to get up and running quickly with the data without having to build everything from scratch. For access to these toolkits and documentation on how to use them, please contact support@woodmac.com.
Contact an expert
Our expert team of more than 30 analysts and meteorologists is dedicated to understanding the short-term power markets and your needs & workflows.
Talk to us today to learn how Nodal Price Forecast for ERCOT can help optimize strategies and capitalize on arbitrage opportunities.
