Onshore wind: diverging cost trends, converging turbine maker strategies

Global onshore wind markets reached a pivotal moment in 2025. Cost dynamics and strategic priorities are shifting, reshaping competition between wind turbine OEMs. Western and Chinese OEMs, once defined by contrasting approaches, are now converging on a common theme: profitability through value creation. 

Wood Mackenzie provides the insight to navigate this shift, helping clients anticipate cost trends, assess competitive strategies, and unlock growth in a rapidly evolving wind market. 

Cost trends: a tale of two markets 

Western turbine prices have risen 45% since 2020, reaching US$1–1.2 million/MW in Europe and the US. These increases persist despite a 20% drop in commodity and logistics costs, as OEMs prioritise margin recovery over volume. Costs peaked in 2025 in Western markets, with gradual relief expected after 2027. 

China’s onshore wind costs are slowing, with declines averaging 3% CAGR through 2027, a sharp contrast to the rapid deflation of the previous five years. This shift reflects market maturity rather than ongoing cost compression. Onshore wind turbine prices, including towers, have rebounded by almost 25% from their Q2 2024 low of US$250k/MW. Fierce competition and oversupply have pressured margins, prompting Chinese OEMs to diversify into project development, hybrid systems, and international expansion. 

However, outside China, aggressive pricing persists. Chinese turbine makers are offering their turbines at a price as low as US$400k/MW in emerging markets, leveraging their domestic scale and technological advances. This cost advantage positions Chinese OEMs to capture 27% of global demand outside China over the next decade, though profitability remains under strain as overseas margins contract. 

Strategic shifts: from cost to value 

Deep financial losses over the last five years have forced Western OEMs to abandon volume-driven competition. The new playbook emphasises modular turbine designs, AI-driven predictive maintenance, and digitalisation to enhance reliability and asset performance. Sustainability and recyclability are emerging as differentiators in tenders, while grid integration capabilities strengthen the value proposition beyond hardware. Strategic collaboration on component standardisation and logistics is accelerating, creating economies of scale and mitigating delays. 

Chinese OEMs are undergoing a similar transformation. Rather than competing solely on price, leading players are repositioning as end-to-end solution providers. Their offerings now include project development, hybrid energy systems, and AI-enabled power trading platforms. Investments in local manufacturing, workforce training, and long-term partnerships strengthen their foothold in emerging markets. By highlighting advanced turbine technology, ESG compliance, and smart energy platforms, these firms aim to compete with Western OEMs while differentiating from domestic rivals focused on cost. 

Policy and market reform: a catalyst for change 

Policy is accelerating this shift. China’s 2025 power market reform replaces guaranteed tariffs with competitive auctions, mirroring Europe’s move toward market-based schemes. As revenue models evolve, OEMs must compete not only within the wind sector but also against solar, storage, and other technologies. Success will require coordination among developers, governments, and suppliers to improve asset returns and strengthen wind’s competitiveness as an asset class. 

Investor confidence and market outlook 

The strategic pivot toward value creation has bolstered investor confidence. The share prices of both Chinese and Western wind OEMs have risen on average by 72% year-to-date, driven by price recovery, policy-driven demand, and prospects for global expansion. Western OEMs benefited from easing supply chain bottlenecks and EU permitting reforms, while Chinese peers capitalised on domestic policy support and industry consolidation. 

Yet challenges remain. Overseas expansion by Chinese OEMs faces structural hurdles, including higher costs from local manufacturing, logistics complexity for larger turbines, and the need to establish O&M networks. Meanwhile, Western OEMs must strike a balance between price discipline and innovation to maintain competitiveness in a market where cost pressures persist. 

The road ahead 

The convergence of Western and Chinese strategies marks a new era for onshore wind - one defined by technology, integration, and system-level value. If the wind industry executes this transition effectively, it will not only restore profitability but also secure wind’s role as a cornerstone of global decarbonisation. Failure to adapt risks eroding margins and losing ground to rival technologies. The winners will be those who embrace value, and not just cost, as the foundation of growth.