LNG short-term trade and price outlook (Q2 2021)

Lower-than-seasonal inventory, higher coal and carbon prices, allied with continued strong APAC LNG demand combines to keeps prompt fundamentals tight. Northeast Asian growth carries risk: In each of the three largest LNG importing countries (China, Japan, Korea) we expect sizeable growth (or at least a rebound) in 2021 imports. Indian import growth to stall: We are not expecting a repeat of last year’s double-digit demand growth rate, despite the strong start to the year. With many states forced to impose local lockdowns, we expect material reductions in city gas and industrial demand for LNG. European tightness: A cold snap in April caused a counter-seasonal net withdrawal of inventory, worsening the storage situation which for several months has been running below seasonal averages.