Commodity Market Report
China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China achieved a 2.3% full-year GDP growth in 2020, the quick economic recovery has provided momentum to gas demand which increased by 6% to reach 324 bcm. Although a deceleration from 2019, gas continues to increase its share in the energy mix. Economic growth and environmental policies will drive gas demand in this decade. China will set new targets to control coal consumption to promote coal-to-gas switching as infrastructure access and gas accessibility improve. Despite economic volatility and possible comeback of coal, the trend of gas demand growth won’t change fundamentally. We expect gas demand to reach 552 bcm in 2030 and decelerate afterwards as slowing urbanisation and peaking energy demand could partially compromise the effect of fuel switching. China’s gas demand will increase by 2.0% a year on average to reach 670 bcm in 2040 then slow to just 0.5% a year to reach 704 bcm in 2050, as gas penetration peaks and stabilises in non-power sectors.
Table of contents
- Gas demand will double by mid-2030s, driven by growth in all sectors
- Midstream gas reforms progress, providing momentum to diversifying gas supply and market-based pricing
- Contracting activity slows and is being driven by non-NOCs, but infrastructure development and growing uncontracted demand will spur new contracting requirements
- Central Asian gas flows to China will recover slowly from the low in 2020; FIDs on additional capacity will face further delay
- Power of Siberia emerges as one of China’s most competitive gas sources, paving the way for additional gas pipeline route between Russia and China
- China’s gas output delivers satisfying growth in the near term, but long-term production is expected to plateau at around 350 bcm a year
- Tight gas and shale gas will underpin domestic output after 2030
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Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Total gas demandGas demand by sector H2 2020Power capacity
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Installed capacity by fuelPower generationPower generation by fuelLNG imports outlookPipeline imports outlookPipeline imports by routeConventional supply outlookConventional supply by basinUnconventional supply outlook
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What's included
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