Lower 48 distress: Introducing the inaugural Corporate Debt Monitor

Wood Mackenzie is pleased to introduce the inaugural Lower 48 Corporate Debt Monitor, which measures net asset values against principal debt obligations under multiple scenarios. The sharp decline in commodity prices magnifies financial distress for many Lower 48 operators and raises questions about future debt obligations across the sector. • Only 40% of Lower 48 independents have NAVs higher than potential maximum principal debt obligations based on Wood Mackenzie’s long-term price forecast and a PUD discount rate of 20%. • Most issuers’ bonds are trading at notable discounts to par, highlighting distress across the sector. • Many operators face significant refinancing risk with large debt maturities in the coming years and fewer credible options for alternative sources of financing.