We forecast a supply deficit by at least 2020, or sooner if El Niño weather patterns occur. The country has already begun importing gas through a newly constructed regasification terminal near Cartagena.
Less imports could be needed in the long term if offshore discoveries are developed, but uncertainties remain around the viability of offshore gas. The government will need to incentivize Anadarko to develop their Kronos and Gorgon discoveries through more favorable fiscal terms. Under current terms, the development is the least attractive in Anadarko's global pre-FID portfolio.
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Offshore is also strategic for Ecopetrol, who will drill five offshore wells this year including two already drilled in partnership with Anadarko. The NOC has a very low proven reserve life for an E&P of its scale, and offshore gas is a potential growth opportunity.
This insight was compiled by Amanda Kupchella, Research Analyst in Latin America Upstream. Our team covers a vast number of industries in the region.