Wood Mackenzie's accelerated energy transition 2-degree scenario: what it means for gas and LNG

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How could a 2-degree world play out in the future? Our accelerated energy transition (AET-2) scenario envisions how one interpretation of the Paris Agreement could be achieved, based on our fundamental analysis across the natural resource sectors. The AET-2 scenario calls for emissions reductions to start almost immediately – requiring a significant erosion of fossil fuel demand.

Gas demand, however, remains resilient. Methane’s lower carbon intensity helps global gas demand to stay flat through 2050. As the momentum behind a faster energy transition grows around the world, countries choosing to take different paths present implications to the global gas industry. Demand will continue to grow in Asia, particularly in emerging markets that are still dependent on coal. However, demand will decline substantially in more mature markets, including Europe. To understand the impact of the AET-2 scenario on global gas supply and prices, we have leveraged our Global Gas Model Next Generation.

Global gas demand: base case vs. AET-2

Source: Wood Mackenzie

The full report around our AET-2 scenario covers topics that are key for the gas industry including:

  • Net zero policies and implications on gas and LNG demand
  • Gas/LNG supply and trade transformation
  • Changing pricing dynamics
  • Why new technologies like hydrogen and CCS provide opportunities for gas
  • The need to adapt to new business models

Fill out the form on this page to download the free report extract, which provides a glimpse into our findings based on this scenario. If you're interested in the full report, please contact us.