Copper in 2026: Will geopolitics trump geology?

The copper market is increasingly defined by how well producers manage constraints rather than how they time price cycles. Volatility is not new, but the way pressures around supply, costs and policy are converging feels more acute. Declining grades, tighter sulphuric acid availability, shifting smelter economics and rising trade and fiscal risk are no longer background considerations. They are feeding directly into operating margins, capital decisions and confidence in production plans. 

Our analysts were in Santiago in mid‑April during CESCO Week, speaking with miners, smelters, traders and policymakers across the value chain. Those conversations reinforced a picture of a market shaped as much by geopolitics, input reliability and policy intervention as by demand growth. 

The challenge for copper producers is not identifying these issues, most are well understood, but managing how they interact. In a system this tight, relatively small shifts in inputs, terms or trade rules can quickly outweigh headline price signals. 

Sulphuric acid is the hidden constraint behind leach production 

The facts: Sulphuric acid availability has become the dominant topic of industry conversation recently, overtaking traditional debates around mine supply and demand. Disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have materially affected flows of this critical input, tightening the global market faster than many expected. Further pressure is building. From May, China is set to implement restrictions on sulphuric acid exports aimed at protecting domestic supply, a move that is already reshaping trade flows and availability elsewhere.  

Our take: Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, is structurally short of sulphuric acid, with imports from China already at a standstill. While miners with long term contracts remain partially insulated and domestic supply from players such as Noracid, Codelco and Anglo American is covering near term needs, spot prices have doubled and visibility beyond mid year deteriorates quickly. Smaller operators, in particular, face growing exposure. Additional large scale demand is also approaching. Grupo México’s Tía María project in Peru is expected to ramp up from late 2027, with sulphuric acid procurement beginning well ahead of first cathode. The message coming through clearly in Santiago was that acid tightness is no longer a short term shock. It is becoming an ongoing operating condition. 

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Fill out the form at the top of the page to download the complimentary insight, which covers five further key copper market developments: 

• The TCRC benchmark system is still holding, but under strain 

• Demand risk is taking a back seat to other factors 

• Uncertainty is rising concerning how long high prices will last 

• Tariffs linger as a market risk 

• Argentina is back in play, but confidence is conditional