How can European refiners thrive in an uncertain world?

Nations and regions increasingly face the challenge of trying to balance three often competing goals: securing a reliable supply of energy from diverse sources; ensuring access to affordable energy; and minimising the environmental impact of energy use.  

As governments try to square the energy circle, the refining sector must be ready to adapt to the new realities to survive. So, what does that mean for European refiners? 

Ahead of our keynote, “Energy Trilemma – How Can European Refining Thrive in an Uncertain World?” at ERTC 2025, we’re sharing a sneak peek of the content that will be discussed on the day.

Global oil demand continues to grow, but at modest levels 

European demand for oil and liquid petroleum derivatives is already falling, thanks to ambitious climate policies, renewables growth and the electrification of transport. Perhaps more surprising is that liquids demand is starting to stagnate in China. While petrochemicals will add demand growth of 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in China in 2025, this will be offset by declining demand for road transport, resulting in overall growth of only 0.17 million barrels per day. As a result, by 2027, India will lead global liquids growth at over 0.2 million barrels per day (see chart below). 

2026 will be the floor of European refining margins 

Refining margins in Europe have benefited from low stocks, high maintenance and the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries in H2 2025. Margins are set to be lower in 2026, before starting to rise again through 2027. However, increasing exposure to the cost of emissions means European refiners will face pressure on their margins in the long term once global oil demand has peaked.   

The critical question: how do you adapt?

To survive and thrive in this evolving environment, competitively weak European refiners will need to pivot away from crude processing, potentially within the next two to three turnaround cycles.

Ready to explore the strategic solutions?

Join us at ERTC 2025, where we will present the complete strategic roadmap in our keynote session on Tuesday, 18 November at 15:10.

In this must-see session, we will explore how European refiners can overcome today's volatility and turn uncertainty into competitive advantage. We will outline strategic paths forward, including:

• Adapting to global disruptions such as US tariffs and regional conflicts

• Making bold, future-focused investment decisions

• Embracing advocacy strategies to influence and thrive in a rapidly changing energy landscape

Don't miss this opportunity to gain actionable insights tailored to your business.

Book your one-on-one meeting today via the form above. Our experts will be available throughout the conference to share insights that can drive your business forward.