Introducing Prospect Valuations

The Lens Subsurface Prospect Valuations tool uses Wood Mackenzie’s subsurface and upstream data, knowledge and experience to build discounted cash flow models for mature offshore prospects. 

Prospect Valuations allows users to screen, benchmark and value upcoming opportunities among an enhanced global dataset of mature, drill-ready prospects. It opens up a new arena for Lens Subsurface users to better understand competitor strategy, internal portfolio analysis and opportunity evaluation. 

Modelling offshore mature prospects 

To date, Wood Mackenzie has modelled 90% of offshore mature prospects, focusing on those with prospective resources of 20 mmboe or more. This industry-leading exploration analysis covers 12.7 billion boe of risked prospective resources. Still to come, Wood Mackenzie plans to expand its modelling to include all onshore and offshore mature prospects (excluding Russia). Wood Mackenzie will also develop emission profiles for each prospect as a  further enhancement of this comprehensive analysis. 

Liquids account for 57% of modelled prospective resources. Large-scale deepwater prospects account for 82% of risked prospective liquid resources. These challenging environments require select explorers with advanced technical expertise to deliver results. 

Majors and national oil companies (NOCs) are spearheading these exploration efforts, contributing two-thirds of the total risked present value (PV). They consistently target high volume, high value deepwater oil prospects, aiming for substantial returns. This strategy aligns with the industry's focus on large-scale, fast-payback projects. Notably, 13 of the top 15 companies have over half of their risked post-tax PV within deep and ultra-deepwater prospects. 

So how does Prospect valuations work? 

Our prospect models are based on five interconnected components: production profile, well numbers, development solution, capital expenditure and phasing, and operating costs.  

Risking is based on Wood Mackenzie’s calculated chance of success (CoS) methodology, which scores key subsurface risks. 

We evaluate the essential geological risks for each prospect: reservoir presence and effectiveness (P1), based on porosity and permeability, lithology and net thickness; source rock richness (P2); trap type (P3); and seal lithology (P4). The chance of geological success (CoS) is expressed as follows: 

CoS = P1 x P2 x P3 x P4 

Each geological risk is scored on a probability scale ranging from 0.0 to 1.0, where P = 1.0 is 100% certainty and P = 0.0 means 0% certainty. The CoS metric is applied to both unrisked prospective resources and post-tax PV to provide a risked metric. 

Learn more 

To learn how Prospect Valuations can help identify opportunities for your business, fill out the form at the top of the page to access more information about this tool.