Solar: predictions for 2025

The global solar market continued its growth trend in 2024, reaching 495 GWdc of installed capacity – a 14% increase on the previous year. Will that trend continue in 2025? Power demand will continue to rise across regions due to the proliferation of data centres and growing electrification trends. But could policy uncertainty, protectionist measures and interconnection and transmission bottlenecks halt the annual growth trend of solar buildout?

Drawing on insight from Lens Power, we’ve set out our view of the factors that will shape the year ahead – and beyond – in Global solar: four things to look for in 2025. Fill in the form to access a complimentary copy and read on for a short introduction of some of the key themes.

The solar industry must adapt to a new, more uncertain policy paradigm

Many countries held elections in 2024, and some of the new administrations coming into power bring a more conservative climate agenda to the table. Uncertainty around renewable energy policy and the future of incentives creates ambiguity that could deter or halt solar project development in many regions. And in many mature markets, declining financial incentives such as capex rebates and feed-in tariffs (FITs) – proposed or implemented – pose a significant challenge to solar.

So, after years of exponential growth, solar installations could see a deceleration. For our view on the global and regional picture, read the full report.

If 2024 was the year of reckoning for manufacturing, 2025 is the year of rationalisation

For the past two years the world has experienced unprecedented low prices for solar panels as global overcapacity forced manufacturers into fierce competition. While this was a huge boon for module buyers, others were concerned about the impact of those low prices on the manufacturing industry.

A substantial shift is underway in 2025. Despite significant overcapacity in every segment of module component manufacturing, manufacturers have pledged to limit production. Polysilicon manufacturers GCL and Tongwei agreed to limit their production, while top module manufacturers like Trina, Longi, Jinko, JA, Canadian Solar and Tongwei have reached a consensus on minimum pricing. The scene is set for this to be a seller’s market once again.

How high could prices go? And which regions could see manufacturing hubs emerge in 2025, driven by government initiatives? Read the full report for our view.

Also in Global solar: four things to look for in 2025…

The race is on to capitalise on huge electricity demand growth from data centres. How is the solar industry tackling this challenge? Plus, how game-changing could solar tech innovation be in 2025? Read the full report for our view.

Fill in the form at the top of the page for your complimentary copy.