Subsurface predictions – and the wells to watch in 2026

As 2025 drew to a close the outlook for exploration in 2026 was subdued by low oil prices. Leading explorers still plan to spud big wells, particularly around the best deepwater oil plays, but timings may slip if either operators or partners opt to delay spending. Overall sector investment looks set to dip below the average US$20 billion of the last five years. However, appetites for upstream renewal and growth have not gone away and we will see selected high-impact drilling. 

In Subsurface: 5 things to look for in 2026, we draw on unique insight from Wood Mackenzie Lens Subsurface to set out the key themes we’ll be tracking closely in the year ahead, including the changing face of basin entry, AI-accelerated seismic-to-drilling decisions and the role of incremental recovery. 

In Wells to watch 2026, we highlight that frontier exploration for advantaged resources remains a driving force for the industry. The report spotlights 23 highly anticipated wells being drilled across the globe, operated by Majors, NOCs and Independents. Collectively these wells are targeting over 12 billion boe in oil and gas with the Atlantic margin accounting for half of the prospective resources.