Sub-Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026

Ian Thom, Sayanima Kisku, Huong Tra Ho, Babawale Scott, George Colleran and Vincenza Papaleo

Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream sector enters 2026 with strong momentum. For the first time since 2015, regional oil and gas output will surpass 6 million boe/d – a remarkable turnaround after falling below 5 million boe/d in 2022.

How will this shape the outlook in the year ahead and beyond? And what are the other key themes to watch? Drawing on Lens Upstream, in Sub Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026, we share our view of the developments we’ll be tracking closely.

This includes: 

• Big start-ups in Uganda, Nigeria and Angola drive production growth: While there are only a few greenfield start-ups in 2026, their significance is substantial.
• A pivotal year for Mozambique’s gas sector: key decisions must be made in 2026 for it to realise its potential to become a top 5 global LNG producer by the mid-2030s.
• Namibia faces a make-or-break year: following nearly four years of impressive exploration successes, can Namibia's Orange Basin rise to the critical challenge of transitioning from the discovery phase to commercial execution? 
• And more. 

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