Sub-Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026

Ian Thom, Sayanima Kisku, Huong Tra Ho, Babawale Scott, George Colleran and Vincenza Papaleo

Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream sector enters 2026 with strong momentum. For the first time since 2015, regional oil and gas output will surpass 6 million boe/d – a remarkable turnaround after falling below 5 million boe/d in 2022.

How will this shape the outlook in the year ahead and beyond? And what are the other key themes to watch? Drawing on Wood Mackenzie Lens Upstream, in Sub Saharan Africa upstream: 5 things to look for in 2026, we share our view of the developments we’ll be tracking closely.

This includes: 

• Big start-ups in Uganda, Nigeria and Angola drive production growth: While there are only a few greenfield start-ups in 2026, their significance is substantial.
• A pivotal year for Mozambique’s gas sector: key decisions must be made in 2026 for it to realise its potential to become a top 5 global LNG producer by the mid-2030s.
• Namibia faces a make-or-break year: following nearly four years of impressive exploration successes, can Namibia's Orange Basin rise to the critical challenge of transitioning from the discovery phase to commercial execution? 
• And more. 

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