Developer/Investor Playbook for APAC Power and Renewables Markets

If you are oil & gas players and conglomerates moving into power investments.

Investment in Asia’s power market is expected to hit US$2.9 trillion over the next decade. This is a 28% increase from where we were just a year ago. Two key drivers of this upward revision are cost inflation and China.

With net-zero and decarbonisation targets now set across the region, this generation mix is also about to change. While our base case assumes a slower rate of growth, power demand still increases by over 90% through 2050. Renewables will play a far greater role in meeting this, with wind and solar generating half of Asia’s electricity by this time, potentially rising to two-thirds in our accelerated energy transition scenario.

If you are utilities, developers, and equipment manufacturers looking to grow scale.

Japan is a very expensive market. A fuel mix of 20% green or blue ammonia plus 80% coal as proposed, will cost around US$150/MWh even by 2030. This is more expensive than gas power while still emitting almost twice as much carbon. A combination of offshore wind and distributed solar backed up by storage and gas units would have a similar price tag.

Vietnam stops connecting wind and solar in 2022, what’s next? The nation has the highest renewables penetration in Southeast Asia with capacity hitting 47% of peak load in 2021, compared to the 18% average. But an overloaded grid and high renewables curtailment are now the main barriers to future development.