It’s a special edition of the Energy Gang this week. New York University’s 2040 Now event is an initiative focused on addressing the challenges posed by climate change, and this week the Energy Gang joined in. As part of the week of exercises, talks, exhibitions and discussions, regular Energy Gang member Amy Myers-Jaffe led a workshop on building energy transition scenarios, looking for ways to deepen our understanding of the present and strengthen our predictions about the future. The Energy Gang was there to record live in the Kimmel Center for University Life at NYU.
Scenario analysis is particularly useful for analyzing the energy transition, because its trajectory is still uncertain, and a large number of variables can influence outcomes. Some of the most important of those variables are qualitative rather than quantitative, making them hard to analyze in a computer simulation such as an energy systems model. Thinking about a wide range of scenarios is a vital tool for testing assumptions and highlighting alternative possibilities.
Amy and host Ed Crooks were joined by Energy Gang regular Robbie Orvis, Senior Director of Modelling and Analysis at the think-tank Energy Innovation, and by Erin Coughlan de Perez, Dignitas Associate Professor at Tufts University. With contributions from NYU professors, students and invited guests, they discussed the aspects of climate, policy, technology and finance that will shape our energy system and climate over the decades to come. And they ask the question: when we try to predict the future of energy, what are we missing?
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