Horizons Live: A hydrocarbon copy

The April Horizons explores the return of global unconventional exploration and why this time could be different.

A second wave of shale development is taking shape beyond the US. But unlike the early 2010s, when international ventures struggled to replicate US success, today’s push is grounded in harder lessons, sharper strategy and a very different market backdrop.

In the last cycle, many companies overreached. High costs, complex geology and underdeveloped supply chains led to disappointing results. As US shale surged, operators retreated to the relative safety and scale of the Permian Basin, deprioritising global opportunities.

Now, the landscape has shifted.

US tight oil growth is slowing, and in some basins, plateauing. At the same time, demand expectations for oil and gas have proven more resilient than many anticipated, reinforced by geopolitical tensions and a renewed focus on energy security. With no “next Permian” on the horizon, companies are once again looking globally for material growth.

Crucially, this new phase is more disciplined. Technology improvements, lower cost structures and a more selective exploration mindset are increasing the chances of success. Early wins in regions like Vaca Muerta and emerging plays in Saudi Arabia are building confidence that global shale 2.0 could deliver.

Wood Mackenzie’s latest Horizons report examines what’s changed, where the biggest opportunities lie and which projects could reshape regional supply.

Our Horizons Live session brings together our experts to unpack the outlook for global unconventionals and what it means for upstream strategy and long-term supply.

Key themes include:

• Why this time is different: how geopolitical shifts, improved technology and a more mature exploration mindset are setting global shale up for greater success.
• The role of US shale maturity: how slowing growth in core basins is pushing E&Ps to pursue new international opportunities.
• Top global targets: which unconventional plays could be transformative and the barriers they must overcome to move forward.
• From lessons learned to disciplined growth: how operators are applying past failures to improve capital efficiency and execution.
• Implications for supply and energy security: what a successful second wave of global shale could mean for global markets.

Our expert panel explored lice, where global unconventional exploration is gaining momentum, which projects could break through and how companies are rethinking risk and reward in the search for the next generation of supply.

The panel:

• Ed Crooks, Vice Chair Americas and host of Energy Gang podcast
• Rob Clarke, Vice President, Upstream Research
• Joshua Dixon, Senior Research Analyst, Upstream

Find the live conversation below.