Top 5 turbine OEMs to rule two thirds of global market by 2020
After a decade of fragmentation, the top 5 turbine OEMs have reached industry consolidation. Key global players are expected to surpass a combined market share of 68% by 2020, up from 47% 5 years ago, according to recent research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
As noted in the inaugural report, ‘Global wind turbine OEM market share forecasts H1 2019’, during the last 4 years, industry witnessed consolidation among the western turbine OEMs. Looking ahead to the next 4 years, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables expects consolidation to creep into the Chinese market, as Tier II/III Chinese OEMs begin to lose ground in competitive auctions.
Vestas to top OEM market share ranking in 2019
Commenting, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables principal analyst, Shashi Barla, said: “We expect Vestas to retain its market leadership position in 2019, followed by SGRE and GE. Combined, the 3 OEMs will capture more than 50% market share this year.
“Chinese leaders, Goldwind and Envision, are popular due to product reliability and track record, strengthening domestic market share in China to more than 50%. International expansion in Latin America, Africa and APAC will see both positioned in the top 5 global OEM list.”
“European pioneers Enercon and Nordex swing back into action with increased order activity over the last 12 months, paving the way for a strong performance in 2020/21 outside of core European markets with cost-optimised platforms. However, both may face an uphill battle when it comes to competing with their larger western peers.”
SGRE and MHI Vestas dominate global offshore
SGRE and MHI Vestas control the global offshore sector with more than 60% cumulative share expected by 2023, while GE must focus on commercialising the Halide-X 12MW-220 in forthcoming auctions in order to win market share from competitors.
Within the Chinese offshore sector, the top 4 offshore turbine OEMs - SEwind, Goldwind, MingYang and Envision – command more than 90% of the market, leaving just under 10% for other turbine OEMs. With a strong regional presence in Guangdong - the largest offshore province in China and responsible for successful positioning of the 5.XMW platform - MingYang now resides among the leading turbine OEMs.
“GE’s 3 Haliade 150 turbines became operational in Fujian, China in 2018 and the company’s plans to set up a manufacturing facility in Jieyang, Guangdong indicate serious intentions in a market dominated by domestic OEMs.
“Goldwind remains the China’s undisputed leader due to track record, product reliability and supply chain dependability. However, Envision emerged as a shining star in the Chinese OEM competitive landscape thanks to a focus on low wind and ultra-low wind speed segments,” continued Mr. Barla.
U.S. remains single largest market for global leaders
In the near-term, for global leaders Vestas, GE and SGRE, the U.S. will be an important market.
“SGRE is working to revive its prospects in the U.S. before the federal renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC) fades, while NextEra and Invenergy are maintaining their historical preference for GE as a turbine supplier. Vestas has been successful with utilities and IPPs from both the U.S. and Europe, which is illustrated in large volumes of turbines being shipped to MidAmerican, Xcel , EDF and Avangrid.
“Vestas dominates the EMEARC region due to geographic diversification and a strong presence in emerging market auctions, such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa. SGRE’s success in European markets, including Spain and Turkey, and emerging African markets, including Egypt and Morocco, will strengthen the company’s presence in the region. Nordex has been relatively successful in Germany over the last 5 years, largely attributed to their focus on low wind turbines N117/2400 , N117/3X00 and N131/3X00. They are likely to repeat their low wind success story with the new Delta4000/5000 N149 series.
“After 2 painful transition years in India, OEM activity has gained momentum. Suzlon and SGRE have captured over 50% of the market auction volume, while a surge in market demand will create room for new players. Vestas returned to India with 1.1GW in orders since 2017, a record for the company’s history in the country, thanks to local blade manufacturing,” added Mr. Barla.