Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook August 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Coal prices sustained their strength in August for both thermal and metallurgical products. The government adopted various measures to expand output but substantial supply improvement has not materialised. With demand remaining strong, prices were well supported amid tight market fundamentals. We expect to see the thermal coal price weakening with additional supply from September though restocking demand will limit the fall. However, fundamental tightness will continue to fuel the metallurgical coal price. Please read our report for more details.
Table of contents
- When will the additional supply come?
- Prices keep breaking records due to domestic operation constraints and import shortages
- Demand for thermal coal remains strong due to weather issues, despite economy slowing
- Coke supply decline outweighs falling demand
- Domestic: little improvement despite government support
- Imports: high QHD price will lead to higher seaborne thermal coal imports in 2021 than 2020
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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