Insight
| |
7 Pages

Coal vs natural gas: the fight for North America’s power market isn’t over yet


Coal vs natural gas: the fight for North America’s power market isn’t over yet

Report summary

After falling below natural gas-fired electric generation for the first time in 2016, coal-fired electric generation will briefly retake first place in 2017 and 2018 before passing the baton for good in 2019. However, the natural gas markets have displayed rather large short-term price volatility, and that will likely continue well into the future. In this Insight, we examine the dynamics between coal and natural gas in the domestic power market.

The range in coal demand resulting from a +/- US$0.50/mmbtu change to Wood Mackenzie’s 2017 natural gas price forecast from our recent long-term outlook is 101 Mst (4.5 bcfde) in 2017. This range increases to 150 Mst (6.8 bcfde) by 2019 as uncertainty grows in the future. The Powder River Basin, as the largest domestic coal-producing basin, will be most affected by natural gas price volatility. If the productive capacity of the PRB turns out to be less than we forecast, the demand for natural gas could increase by 1 bcfd in 2017. 


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Coal vs natural gas: the fight for North America’s power market isn’t over yet PDF - 426.97 KB 7 Pages, 0 Tables, 7 Figures
  • Del PRISM Results CoalGas March2017.xlsx XLSX - 220.21 KB

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • The dynamic natural gas environment and its effect on US coal markets
  • Natural gas and coal substitution
  • What happens if coal mining capacity is constrained?
  • Changes in natural gas demand from the power sector
  • Contracted coal prices

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • The dynamic natural gas environment and its effect on US coal markets
    • US natural gas production balance (bcfd)
    • Natural gas versus coal generation – history and forecast (TWh)
  • Natural gas and coal substitution
    • Generation by fuel type (TWh)
    • 2017 incremental thermal EGU coal demand for a range of Henry Hub natural gas prices
  • What happens if coal mining capacity is constrained?
    • 2017 – Difference in EGU coal demand by price of natural gas and coal capacity constrained (Mst)
  • Changes in natural gas demand from the power sector
    • Changes in 2017 EGU gas demand by Henry Hub natural gas price (bcfd)
  • Contracted coal prices
    • 2017 Thermal EGU coal price by Henry Hub natural gas price sensitivity
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

As the trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, we empower clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice. Find out more...