Global coal: 2015 in review and what to look for in 2016 Report

Insight 27 January 2016

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Report summary

Now that 2015 has passed into history we can reflect on a tumultuous year in coal markets; a year which started with additional restrictions on the import of coal into China and ended with the first global agreement to control global temperature increases. The factors weighing on demand and prices in 2015 look set to continue through 2016 which will offer little hope of a major turnaround for the coal market.

Executive summary
- No escaping the influence of China
  - Approach to capacity crisis should become clearer in 2016
  - No resolution to China's problems in 2016
- Demand elsewhere is mixed
  - Asia
  - Americas
  - COP21 a potential game-changer for demand, but not yet
- Production costs continue to fall, and prices will follow
- Accelerating bankruptcies, restructures and closures a sign of things to come
  - Igniting M&A activity
- Supply exodus not yet enough to force a sustained turnaround in prices
- Conclusion