Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2022

Queensland PLV prices climbed back to US$260/t in mid-December after being in slumber during the previous 2-3 weeks. Prices stood their ground despite downward pressure from weak steel demand, primarily led by tight supply. While Australian mined supply eased slightly over the past few weeks, overall tightness persisted. We see PLV price levitating at US$250-270/t in Q1 2023 led by improving demand sentiments from India and restricted supply scenes. Prices will gradually ease from Q2 following improving supply prospects from Australia. Market sentiments cheered in China as we saw domestic met coal prices firm up by RMB100/t or US$15/t from the end of Nov to mid-Dec, underpinned by the easing of covid policy and restocking demand for winter use. Prices will stay firm in Dec, led by accelerating replenishment from coke firms in anticipation of production cuts at mine sites. However, from Jan, we expect a downward pressure on prices after the Chinese New Year.