Metallurgical Coal Markets - The Fortnight Flash 15 September 2026

Queensland PLV HCC FOB spot prices edged lower as China's domestic coking coal market softened, weighing on sentiment. The near-term price outlook is moderately bearish, with prices expected to drift lower through Q4 2026. On the demand side, seaborne coking coal demand is expected to soften marginally. Indian buying picked up modestly in early September, although restocking remains gradual and price-sensitive. In China, apparent steel demand has improved but continues to fall short of seasonal norms, with mill margins under pressure. In Q4, demand weakness, blast-furnace cutbacks and further domestic supply recovery are expected to weigh on China's seaborne import requirements. On the supply side, seaborne supply is expected to increase modestly, with Australian and Canadian growth largely offsetting Indonesian declines. US exports remain constrained by the suspension at a major HVA coal mine, while Russian shipments are edging higher on improved export netbacks.