Name: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2019: Falling prices seek turning point
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 114111
Price: 5000 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Commodity Market Report 31 July 2019

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Report summary

A myriad of negative forces have piled pressure on metallurgical coal prices this month. Prices for Australian low-volatile HCC have fallen by US$30/t since late May. Chinese port restrictions, seasonally low demand, and the effect of broad supply improvements during the second quarter, have combined to force prices down. Many of the factors that have shifted the market dynamic will be short-lived, and despite near term uncertainty around prices, we expect a tightening in the market to push prices higher after August.

The bad news: Myriad forces drive hard reversal of fortune
- PCI spot prices under intense pressure
The good news: Prices will be stronger by year's end
Plenty of possible externalities remain
- Australia looks to build on solid second quarter
- Anglo American benefits from early longwall moves
- BHP production climbs but will be hard to maintin
- South32’s production up 20% on Appin revival
- Anglo approves Grasstree's replacement
- Vale lowers its Mozambique metallurgical coal outlook for 2019
- More Russian coal moving to Asian markets
- US sees a flurry of bankruptcies
- 7 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)Queensland Ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt)Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)

Crude steel production - other major producers (Mt)Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)Blast furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)