Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2024
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Report summary
Australian PLV HCC prices fell to US$177/t in early September, for the first time since June 2021. Prices were squeezed by weak demand because of blast furnace cuts around the world and some term-contract cargoes redirected into the spot market. This low price point was short-lived and quickly rebounded above US$190/t, supported by a favourable Chinese price arbitrage and the HCC total cash cost curve. A new Chinese stimulus package also improved market sentiment towards the end of the month. We expect price volatility to remain in Q4 within the lower price range (under USS$200/t), until we see an improvement in India’s infrastructure spend and post-monsoon met coal demand.
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