Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Limited financing and sudden policy shifts create volatility

Get this report

$6,750

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

Sample chart from this report:

14 December 2018

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Limited financing and sudden policy shifts create volatility

Report summary

Seaborne thermal coal prices buoyed by Chinese, Indian and SE Asian growth and push to electrify. Protectionist measures in China and inefficient Indian logistics tempered trade. Growing demand in developing countries outweighs an increasingly carbon constrained world, leading to a slight rise in long term seaborne demand. Global high grade supply remains tight while low grade coals sought alternate ports in light of 2018 Chinese import restrictions. Long term supply needed to meet demand but investors reluctant to fund projects.

Table of contents

  • Phase I: A gradual return to marginal costs (2018 – 2023)
  • Phase II: the first bounce (2024 – 2027)
  • Phase III: risker projects required despite demand pressure (2028 – 2037)
  • Phase IV: renewables risk weighs on prices (2038 – 2040)
    • Global thermal coal demand continues to decline from its 2013 peak
    • Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
    • China
    • India
    • Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
    • Southeast Asia
    • EMEARC and the Americas
    • Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
    • Mining costs slowly rising
    • Country-level supply review: Indonesia and Australia dominate the supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
  • Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
  • Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
  • Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS_data_thermal_trade_long_term_outlook_2018_H2.xlsx

    XLSX 16.22 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Limited financing and sudden policy shifts create volatility

    ZIP 796.00 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Limited financing and sudden policy shifts create volatility

    ZIP 13.94 MB

  • Document

    wm_cms_thermal_h2_2018_lto_slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.87 MB

  • Document

    CMS_data-pivot_view-thermal_trade_long_term_outlook_2018_H2.xlsx

    XLSX 3.12 MB

  • Document

    CMS_price_charts_thermal_trade_long-term_2018_H2_data.xls

    XLS 3.48 MB

Trusted by leading organisations