Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2021: weaker demand pressures prices

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26 February 2021

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2021: weaker demand pressures prices

Report summary

The surge in Chinese seaborne demand that heated the market in December and January has subsided. Thereafter, seaborne coal prices promptly switched to a declining trend. Multiple supply disruptions could keep prices for most coal grades from slumping during the upcoming shoulder demand season. On the other hand, the surge in panamax freight rates in the second half of February will add more downward pressure on prices. Read this month's report for our latest market analysis. We are also pleased to introduce short monthly video briefings from our experts on the key market trends, available here.

Table of contents

  • High/low scenarios
  • China – Seaborne imports stable despite price arbitrage closing
  • India – Many positive signs for import coal demand
  • South Korea – 3 GW new coal-fired units support import growth this year
  • Philippines – New coal power units will offset the impact of Mariveles’ accidental outage
  • Europe – Carbon policies continue to advance
  • Australia – Holding up as trade flows continue to evolve
  • Indonesia – China-bound cargoes surge
  • South Africa – Exports slump in January while Transnet plays catch up
  • Colombia – Cerrejon’s struggles continue
  • US – extreme weather supports domestic coal demand
  • Canada – Vista mine idled over regulatory delay

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
  • China seaborne thermal coal imports by month, Mt
  • S.Korea generation capacity factor (2019-2020)
  • S.Korea generation change, %YoY(2019-20)
  • Australia thermal coal exports (Mt, 2019-2020)
  • Australia thermal coal exports 2020 (Mt, annualised)
  • Indonesia coal exports to China (annualised)
  • Indonesia coal production and exports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thermal Coal Markets Short Term Outlook Data February 2021

    XLSX 498.18 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2021: weaker demand pressures prices

    PDF 1.00 MB