Global thermal short-term outlook December 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 03 January 2023

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

December’s situation seems like a tale of two different thermal coal markets. On the one hand, benchmark high-CV coal prices, which entered the month on a strong note, started trending downwards as we approached the month-end. On the other hand, low-rank Indonesian coal prices, which fell for most of last month, kept rising throughout December. Read our latest report to read for our views on: - How will thermal coal prices trend as we enter 2023? - Will seaborne thermal coal demand remain strong through next year? - How will Covid-19 cases impact seaborne thermal coal demand? - Will long will it take seaborne thermal coal supplies to recover?

China – China relaxes the control on coronavirus
India – Intensifying winter to keep thermal coal demand robust
Europe – Ample coal supplies ahead of peak winter demand
South Africa – Exports to end the year on a tough note
High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Australia thermal coal exports
Newcastle coal shipments (met and thermal)
Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)

Indonesian mines 7-day average rainfall (mm/week)
SA monthly coal exports by country/region
Average rainfall across SA coal mines
Key prices - history and forecast
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%