India coal long-term outlook H2 2020: firm fundamentals drive growth despite pandemic

The significant presence of India will continue in the thermal and metallurgical coal markets in the long term. We expect thermal coal demand to increase by 68% by 2050. Even though renewable power generation is set to increase, coal will continue to have a major presence in the power sector. Coal’s share of the generation mix will remain above 40% through 2050. Meanwhile, demand for metallurgical coal will increase by 264% by 2050 – 85% of which will be catered through imports. The Indian government wants to reduce the reliance on imports for thermal coal and to diversify metallurgical coal sources. But we foresee thermal coal imports remaining a part of Indian coal demand throughout our forecast. Australia will also remain a key supplier of metallurgical coal in India until 2050. In this report, we look at the demand and supply outlook for coal, considering the economic growth of India in the long term.