Indonesia's surging coke supply to supercharge coking coal demand Report

Insight 01 February 2024

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Report summary

Indonesia is emerging as a major coke-exporting hub due to rapid growth in its coke production capacities. As a result, global coke trade flow will reshape as shipments from Indonesia surge at a time when exports from traditional exporting countries enter a period of decline. Indonesia’s coke supply growth will act as a major boon to coking coal producers.

Indonesia’s coke exports grow
Surging coke exports will reshape seaborne coke trade flow
Ageing coke capacities beyond Southeast Asia can be a growth avenue for Indonesia
Australian PLV price spikes cause coke margins to crash
Coke margins squeezed on the intensified competition with low-cost Chinese coke
Indonesia emerges as a major new coking coal demand centre
Australian supply risks prompt import diversification
Implication 1: growing domestic coking coal supply offers opportunity to Indonesian coke makers to survive potential headwinds
Implication 2: Indonesian merchant coke makers are surviving in a fissure by blending more affordable coal - HVA from the US
Implication 3: global seaborne PHCC demand growth momentum will soften as some coking coal buyers choose to import coke from Indonesia rather than import coal