Insight
Metallurgical coal: 5 things to look for in 2026
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Report summary
The onset of 2026 brings new challenges and opportunities for the metallurgical coal industry, as both old, ongoing trends and new upcoming developments coincide. We are seeing some potential positive signals from China's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, but the impact on metallurgical coal is clouded by the government's emphasis on capacity control and a green steel transition. Europe also holds some upside potential, given an incidental coinciding of CBAM and renewed safeguard measures. Elsewhere, India is imposing its own trade defences, with the potential to shift met coal trade flows, while miners worldwide face their own suite of issues. In this Insight, we have focused the 2026 outlook around five topics: - How will Chinese policy shape met coal demand? - What impact will India's various new trade measures have? - How will Europe's slower decarbonisation benefit coke? - What challenges will miners need to overcome? - How will met coal mining costs develop over the next year?
Table of contents
- 1. Chinese policy: Navigating the transition to high-quality development
- 2. India’s anti-dumping duty on met coke imports will reshape seaborne trade for met coke and met coal
- 3. Coke and coking coal will benefit from Europe’s slower decarbonisation
- 4. Met coal miners face varying challenges around the globe
- 5. Met coal export seaborne production lag versus capacity narrows post-2020, but C1 total cash costs expected to remain elevated
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