Commodity Market Report
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook June 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Met coal prices are rising, fuelled by forced outages at Chinese mines and shortages at coke plants. China CFR prices crested US$300/t and Australian PLV is near US$190/t. Volatility remains extraordinarily high, in an illiquid market. We consider the recent incendiary forces acting on the market to be temporary. Prices should ease in early July as Chinese mines are nominally set to return from 5 July. Mongolian imports should also restart in early July at Ganqimaodu, after being closed due to a positive covid case. India’s monsoon and seasonal construction slowing in southern China will also dampen demand during Q3.
Table of contents
- Chinese mine closures supercharge a hot market
-
Prices are unsustainable without continued supply discipline
- Chinese supply to improve
- Chinese demand under pressure
- India demand will slow during the monsoon season
- Prices to fall but timing is uncertain
- China’s economy and industrial production still strong, but should taper
- China steel production remained strong in June but is showing signs of topping out
- China’s seasonally weak construction period has begun with less speculative steel buying
- China’s steel margins are falling, leading to a good time for maintenance activity
- 14 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
What's included
This report contains:
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