Metallurgical Coal: What to look for in 2020 Report

Insight 20 January 2020

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Report summary

Moving into 2020 after a Jekyll and Hyde year in 2019, expect a cautious rebound in global economic growth underpinned by Chinese and Indian government stimulus and the recent Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China. The speculation surrounding IMO 2020 impacts ends as ships face sulphur compliance 1 January. This could be the year China reaches peak steel production. On the back of a record hot metal demand forecast, the country will look to impose another round of annual import quotas as the government balances between supporting domestic supply and importing high quality coals. Suppliers face growing pains as the world's eyes are firmly focused on fossil fuel development. The dawn of a new decade brings a coming (re)evolution in coal mining and green steel production. We examine what to look for in the seaborne metallurgical coal trade during 2020, highlighting our top seven themes.

1. Global macroeconomic conditions to improve
2. Government stimulus to be a key demand driver
3. Chinese crude steel demand to peak in 2020
4. IMO 2020 sulphur limits to raise bulk shipping rates
5. Supply growth to become more challenging
6. An end to bi-lateral quarterly contract negotiations
7. The emergence of new long-term themes in 2020
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