North America coal short-term outlook April 2022

Once again, utilities are having to carefully manage their coal use and, in some cases, cut back on coal-fired generation. At today’s high natural gas prices, coal is competitive but there isn’t enough of it getting from the mines to the plants. We expect generation to increase steadily until peak summer months and, if July and August demand reaches last year’s levels, generators will need to rely heavily on their stockpiles once again. Most producers are sold out for 2022, so extra supply will be hard to come by. Any incremental tons would assuredly go into the export market to take advantage of the strong netbacks.