North America Coal Strategic Planning Outlook - H1 2022

Demand: Although high natural gas prices, increased power demand, and depleted stockpiles add up to robust demand for US thermal coal, both suppliers and the utilities recognise that the rally is unsustainable and have learned to practice discipline even in an up market. Further, ESG reporting, climate risk disclosure regulations, and more stringent leadership at the EPA put additional strain on coal producers as many utilities to turn to cleaner energy generation. Supply: Supply reaches its highest point since before the pandemic in 2022 and then begins its long descent. US thermal coal production drops from 555 Mst in 2022 to 370 Mst in 2028 and then to 99 Mst in 2035. The US will continue supplying the seaborne markets long term. Prices: Ongoing market tightness and sanctions on Russian exports keep coal prices higher for longer than in the previous forecast. The full report, Excel files with data from 2022-2050 and the updated North America Coal Markets tool are available now.