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Now you see it, now you don’t: detecting seasonality in seaborne thermal coal markets

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Report summary

In short-term thermal coal forecasting, a significant amount of weight is normally given to the regional seasonal buying patterns of utilities. This is a time-proven and well-documented analytical approach. However, when seaborne imports are below 20% of total demand, predicting short-term imports using seasonality does not work well. When seaborne imports approach 100% of total burn, seasonality does appear to be a valid input to short-term forecasting. Consequently seasonality is a useful tool in forecasting seaborne trade but is limited by country demand characteristics, and should therefore be used judiciously.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Now you see it, now you don’t: detecting seasonality in seaborne thermal coal markets

    PDF 313.26 KB

Table of contents

  • Summary
  • Global seaborne imports
  • Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
  • China
  • India
  • Factors affecting results
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

Images

  • Historical seaborne thermal imports by month (Mt)
  • Japan coal burn (Mt)
  • Japan imports by quarter (Mt)
  • Trending quarterly Japan imports (Mt)
  • Japan monthly imports (Mt)
  • South Korea monthly imports (Mt)
  • Taiwan monthly imports (Mt)
  • China coal burn (LS, Mt) and fraction of seaborne imports (RS, %)
  • China imports by quarter (Mt)
  • Trending quarterly China imports (Mt)
  • China monthly imports (Mt)
  • India coal burn (LS, Mt) and fraction of seaborne imports (RS, %)
  • Now you see it, now you don’t: detecting seasonality in seaborne thermal coal markets: Image 13
  • Now you see it, now you don’t: detecting seasonality in seaborne thermal coal markets: Image 14
  • India monthly imports (Mt)
  • Global seaborne imports by month 2014-2016 (Mt)

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