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Thermal coal: 5 things to look for in 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
As thermal coal markets exit 2025 with seaborne demand declining marginally and benchmark prices testing historic lows, 2026 presents a mix of familiar challenges and emerging shifts. China's new five-year plan will continue reshaping market dynamics, while Indonesia pivots from years of maximum output to aggressive supply management . Russia's coal sector faces an uncertain future with potential ceasefire implications, Japan and South Korea accelerate nuclear restarts that could displace coal demand, and prices remain rangebound. Wood Mackenzie's global thermal coal team identifies the five critical trends that will shape seaborne markets in 2026.
Table of contents
- Introduction
- China’s evolving coal policies will continue to throw spanners into seaborne markets
- Managing down – Indonesia looking to avoid policy backfire
- Russian Coal Bear wounded but still has some teeth
- Coal faces a rising Japanese and South Korean nuclear tide
- Seaborne thermal coal market settling into a new price groove
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China monthly thermal coal production and QHD priceNEWC6000 vs Russia Far East High CV coal price2026 High energy seaborne thermal coal FOB (TCC + sustaining capex)2026 Low energy seaborne thermal coal FOB (TCC + sustaining capex)
What's included
This report contains:
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