Name: Thermal coal: 5 things to look for in 2026
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 217062
Price: 1100 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 09 January 2026

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Report summary

As thermal coal markets exit 2025 with seaborne demand declining marginally and benchmark prices testing historic lows, 2026 presents a mix of familiar challenges and emerging shifts. China's new five-year plan will continue reshaping market dynamics, while Indonesia pivots from years of maximum output to aggressive supply management . Russia's coal sector faces an uncertain future with potential ceasefire implications, Japan and South Korea accelerate nuclear restarts that could displace coal demand, and prices remain rangebound. Wood Mackenzie's global thermal coal team identifies the five critical trends that will shape seaborne markets in 2026.

Introduction
China’s evolving coal policies will continue to throw spanners into seaborne markets
Managing down – Indonesia looking to avoid policy backfire
Russian Coal Bear wounded but still has some teeth
Coal faces a rising Japanese and South Korean nuclear tide
Seaborne thermal coal market settling into a new price groove

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

China monthly thermal coal production and QHD priceNEWC6000 vs Russia Far East High CV coal price2026 High energy seaborne thermal coal FOB (TCC + sustaining capex)2026 Low energy seaborne thermal coal FOB (TCC + sustaining capex)